If this holds up, and there is some question about that, it will be one of the largest shifts of voter preference in Virginia history.
From Tom Jensen of PPP:
Among the reasons for Deeds’ ascent are:
-A remarkable increase in support in northern Virginia in the wake of the Washington Post endorsement. More Democratic primary votes are cast there than anywhere else, and in the last two and a half weeks Deeds has gone from polling at just 11% there to a surprising lead in the region with 38% to 35% for Moran and 20% for McAuliffe. The endorsement is not inherently a game changer but the Deeds campaign effectively milked it for all it was worth with signs, mailers, and a late media buy. All of that paid huge dividends.
-He finally consolidated the anti-McAuliffe vote. Even though Terry McAuliffe has always had higher negatives than his two opponents combined, for most of the campaign voters with an unfavorable opinion of him were splitting almost evenly between Deeds and Moran, resulting in both of their polling behind McAuliffe. In the closing weeks though much of that has gravitated toward Deeds as he now has a 58-35 lead on Moran among voters who don’t like the former DNC chair. Since those folks comprise 40% of the electorate, it is a very important group to do well with.
-He made the most of the Democratic primary being pretty much the only game in town for Republicans and independent voters. Deeds has a 10 point lead with primary voters who are Democrats, but we also project 20% of the folks who turn out on Tuesday to be independents and 6% to be Republicans. Among those voters Deeds has a 26 point lead, with 48% to 22% for McAuliffe and 19% for Moran. His support from them pushes his overall lead to 14 points.
Go read it, I think it is fascinating. Not just because the candidate I like seems to be on top, but from a political science standpoint.