PPP: Deeds 40%, McAuliffe 26%, Moran 24%

If this holds up, and there is some question about that, it will be one of the largest shifts of voter preference in Virginia history.

Public Policy Polling: 6-6,7-09 (previous 6-3-09)

Deeds 40%

McAuliffe 26%

Moran 24%

Undec 10%

From Tom Jensen of PPP:

Among the reasons for Deeds’ ascent are:

-A remarkable increase in support in northern Virginia in the wake of the Washington Post endorsement. More Democratic primary votes are cast there than anywhere else, and in the last two and a half weeks Deeds has gone from polling at just 11% there to a surprising lead in the region with 38% to 35% for Moran and 20% for McAuliffe. The endorsement is not inherently a game changer but the Deeds campaign effectively milked it for all it was worth with signs, mailers, and a late media buy. All of that paid huge dividends.

-He finally consolidated the anti-McAuliffe vote. Even though Terry McAuliffe has always had higher negatives than his two opponents combined, for most of the campaign voters with an unfavorable opinion of him were splitting almost evenly between Deeds and Moran, resulting in both of their polling behind McAuliffe. In the closing weeks though much of that has gravitated toward Deeds as he now has a 58-35 lead on Moran among voters who don’t like the former DNC chair. Since those folks comprise 40% of the electorate, it is a very important group to do well with.

-He made the most of the Democratic primary being pretty much the only game in town for Republicans and independent voters. Deeds has a 10 point lead with primary voters who are Democrats, but we also project 20% of the folks who turn out on Tuesday to be independents and 6% to be Republicans. Among those voters Deeds has a 26 point lead, with 48% to 22% for McAuliffe and 19% for Moran. His support from them pushes his overall lead to 14 points.

Go read it, I think it is fascinating. Not just because the candidate I like seems to be on top, but from a political science standpoint.

Research2000: Deeds Has The Lead at 30; McAuliffe Falls Back

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 6/1-3. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/18-20 results)

Democratic Primary voters MoE 5%

Creigh Deeds (D)     30 (13)

Brian Moran (D)      27 (22)

Terry McAuliffe (D)  26 (36)

Undecided 17 (29)

I agree that a strong field operation can help the second and third place finishers here, but McAuliffe has lost 10 points in the last two weeks, while Deeds has gained 17. No field operation I know of can overcome bad momentum and being in third with 4 days to go.

WaPo: Claims by McAuliffe, Others About Prison Bed Prediction/3rd Grade Test Scores Untrue

The Washington Post, in an article written by Maria Glod and Rosalind S. Helderman, and published this morning (6-4-09), details the false claims made by Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran, and others concerning the possibility of a link between 3rd grade reading scores and predictions for prison bed planning purposes.

There seem to be many culprits here, and the article talks about the perpetuation of a myth that has gone on for many years, to the point of urban legend status. Grover ‘Russ’ Whitehurst, a former head of the U.S. Education Department’s research arm, is sometimes cited as a source of the claim. He is quoted in the article as saying that he heard and repeated the non-fact around 6 years ago.

Recently, everyone from Hillary Clinton to Colin Powell, even the organizers of the Alexandria Literacy Festival have used the bogus claim. Another person, Robley Jones, lobbyist for the Virginia Education Association, said in the article it could possibly have come from him. Jones said he remembers saying something very much like this at a recent conference discussion on education attended by McAuliffe.

Empty desks line the dimly lit elementary classroom. A map of the United States hangs on the wall. As quiet music plays, the camera pulls back and prison bars close over the sobering scene.

“Imagine if your entire future was determined by what you did in the third grade,” says Virginia gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe in a television advertisement promoting his plan to expand preschool. “Did you know we use the failure rates of third-graders to help predict how many prison spots Virginia will need in 15 years?”

You didn’t know? Could be because it’s not true — at least not in Virginia.

The startling claim has been cited by McAuliffe and one of his rivals, Brian Moran, as they seek the Democratic nomination for governor. It is an appealing bit of political rhetoric, providing a cinematic illustration of the benefits of expanding preschool: Society will reap long-term savings by spending money early on education.

Brian Moran made a similar claim in a radio interview last month. In my opinion, he should have known better, as should his campaign. One instance by Moran isn’t quite the same as a television commercial and accompanying literature on the issue of education.

All three Democratic candidates for Governor (and almost everyone else) agrees that children who get a poor start in school are more susceptible to academic problems and social ills. All three have called for increases in early childhood education.

Since the ad began airing in Richmond, Norfolk and Roanoke, McAuliffe’s campaign has said third-grade scores aren’t part of the official formula Virginia uses to plot prison construction. But the campaign says the ad was designed as a tangible and understandable way to bring home the idea that quality preschool is a smart investment.

“We feel comfortable using third-grade reading scores as a way of communicating, in shorthand, the importance of education in predictions of long-term social behavior, including predictions about crime rates, which are then used to determine the number of prison beds that we are constructing,” said McAuliffe communications director Delacey Skinner.

Pure, 100%, unadulterated spin, something the McAuliffe campaign is good at.

Pandering to an idea is always a bad practice. It just looks like you are putting forth information because after all, who doesn’t like schools for the kids? The subject is an important one, but real solutions and real statistics are what will convince people something needs to be done.

So the McAuliffe campaign, in trying to make a point, used the ‘shorthand’ that now turns out to be not true. What else has been exaggerated and might be untrue?

Is this what ‘shorthand’ means to Terry McAuliffe?

Find Your Polling Place For Tuesday

Virginia State Board of Elections

I have been working on a prediction for turnout statewide. I haven’t gotten it nailed down yet, but it will be interesting to see if it passes 5% by much.

I saw somewhere that the percentage of voters turning out for the 2006 Jim Webb-Harris Miller primary was just under 3.5% (150,000 +). That is abysmal numbers. I am adding my voice to others who have suggested that the election schedule in Virginia is too costly for the Commonwealth, and too draining to have elections every year. Fatigue and apathy sets in, and an ever changing group of activists try to win elections after the previous crowd got worn out from non-stop electioneering.

Please remember to vote, June 9, 2009, from 6 AM until 7 PM.

Pollster.com Governor’s Race Trend Lines

Tested: Creigh Deeds, Terry McAuliffe, Brian Moran

Pollster	Dates	N/Pop	Deeds	McAuliffe	Moran	Undecided
PPP (D)	5/28-31/09	559 LV	27	24	22	26
GQR (D-Moran)	5/26-27/09	400 LV	27	26	29	18
PPP (D)	5/19-21/09	617 LV	20	29	20	31
DailyKos.com (D)/ Research 2000	5/18-20/09	400 LV	13	36	22	29
SurveyUSA	5/17-19/09	502 LV	26	37	22	14
PPP (D)	5/1-3/09	583 LV	14	30	20	36
GQR (D-Moran)	4/30-5/3/09	606 LV	18	31	29	22
SurveyUSA	4/25-27/09	409 LV	22	38	22	18
DailyKos.com (D)/ Research 2000	4/6-8/09	400 LV	16	19	24	41
PPP (D)	3/27-29/09	740 LV	15	18	22	45
PPP (D)	2/28-3/1/09	647 LV	14	21	19	46
PPP (D)	1/30-2/1/09	998 LV	11	18	18	53

PPP: All Three Are Tied, Within MOE

From PPP blog:

With a week to go until the Democratic primary for Governor in Virginia the state of the race is as muddled as ever, with all three candidates within five points of each other. Creigh Deeds has a slight lead with 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%. All three candidates are within each other’s margins of error and if the election was today any of the trio could plausibly finish first or last. Nevertheless the momentum continues to be on Deeds’ side. Over the last month he has gone from 14% to 20% to 27% in the polls while McAuliffe has dropped from 30% to 29% to 24% and Moran has pretty much stayed in place, polling twice at 20% and now up to 22%.

Go read the details. What we have here is a nail biter finish to this primary.

McAuliffe Donor’s Private Jet And The VIP’s That Rode It

You’ll remember from yesterday that Terry McAuliffe took money ($50k) from Catherine and Wayne Reynolds, and that EduCap, the company that Catherine Reynolds considers a charity, had a private jet that took special people (at least someone thinks they are special)  for vacations and other trips.

CBS News has reported they have seen a list of some of the names on the yes-fly list, and you might be shocked to see who is on there.

CBS News has obtained exclusive details of what may have been the biggest charity perk: use of Educap’s $31 million luxury jet, which costs thousands of dollars an hour to operate.

Investigators say for five years, Reynolds jetted friends, family and luminaries to faraway and exotic destinations that sometimes had little to do with the charity’s mission.

CBS News has learned that high-profile names on the Educap flight list include CIA Director Leon Panetta, former Sens. Tom Daschle and Ted Stevens, former FBI Director William Sessions and Chicago Mayor Richard Daley.

According to flight records, Panetta and Daschle, while not in public office, accompanied Educap’s Catherine Reynolds on flights to private business meetings not related to the charity.

Reynolds also took Daschle and his wife on a tour with seven stops in Europe and the Middle East.

Ted Stevens, his wife and daughter were along on dozens of flights, hitting destinations like Vail and Aspen, Colo., before the senator was convicted on corruption charges last fall.

And records show Reynolds took Chicago’s Daley and his wife on 58 flights including ones to Turkey, Asia and Sweden.

Chicago Tribune

Huffington Post:

Educap, a non-profit student loan charity under investigation by the IRS, used its $31 million jet to shuttle Mayor Daley and other prominent politicians, CBS News reports.

Chicagoist:

According to a report by CBS News on Monday, Mayor Richard Daley traveled to Singapore in 2006 on a $13 (sic) million jet owned by a non-profit student loan organization, Educap gave millions of dollars to the Academy of Achievement, which paid the mayor’s wife Maggie $100,000 in 2006 and $50,000 in 2007 to be a “site consultant”, scouting out locations to hold annual conferences for outstanding students.

(my emphasis)

Remember, from yesterday, the part of the CBS investigative report that reads:

While Reynolds donated profits from Educap loans to other charities in 2007, it turns out the biggest grant by far – one for $8 million – went to the Academy of Achievement, which happens to be run by her husband Wayne. He then paid himself and a company he owns $1.5 million, according to tax records. Investigators are trying to unravel the complex ties between the husband-and-wife charities, which are so intertwined that the self-dealing and relationship disclosures span eight pages of tax filings.

What are the chances ol’ Terry rode the corporate ‘charity’ jet? Maybe he should tell the parents and students that have loans at EduCap. Is this the dealmaker’s prerogative? What kind of ‘deal’ will he deliver for Virginia?

Watch the CBS video